Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 347 | 458 |
| October 18 2020 | 2635 | 27007 | 86 | 9 | 371 | 512 |
| October 19 2020 | 2674 | 27683 | 90 | 9 | 366 | 522 |
| October 20 2020 | 2736 | 27869 | 99 | 11 | 395 | 552 |
| October 21 2020 | 2783 | 27993 | 99 | 12 | 390 | 572 |
| October 22 2020 | 2850 | 28259 | 103 | 12 | 450 | 586 |
| October 23 2020 | 2941 | 28410 | 104 | 12 | 487 | 633 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.9% | 24 | 0.21% | 27 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 8.4 | 15.6% | 76 | 0.56% | 111 | 0.82% |
| 20-29 | 22 | 14.1 | 25.3% | 123 | 0.59% | 155 | 0.74% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 7.0 | 12.5% | 61 | 0.45% | 81 | 0.6% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 6.6 | 10.5% | 51 | 0.49% | 69 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 5.4 | 10.5% | 51 | 0.41% | 59 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 5.4 | 11.3% | 55 | 0.48% | 68 | 0.59% |
| 70+ | 8 | 5.0 | 9.4% | 46 | 0.44% | 63 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 91 | 54.7 | 100% | 487 | 0.47% | 633 | 0.6% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 319 | 387 |
| October 18 2020 | 1032 | 16975 | 42 | 2 | 302 | 391 |
| October 19 2020 | 1124 | 17459 | 43 | 5 | 361 | 475 |
| October 20 2020 | 1130 | 17583 | 48 | 6 | 343 | 463 |
| October 21 2020 | 1215 | 17691 | 48 | 7 | 403 | 517 |
| October 22 2020 | 1279 | 17885 | 48 | 7 | 446 | 549 |
| October 23 2020 | 1318 | 18021 | 51 | 10 | 459 | 555 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.6 | 3.1% | 14 | 0.18% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.7 | 8.1% | 37 | 0.44% | 45 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 5.1 | 14.2% | 65 | 0.91% | 86 | 1.21% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 8.0 | 17.2% | 79 | 0.94% | 96 | 1.14% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 6.0 | 15.3% | 70 | 0.9% | 87 | 1.12% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 7.3 | 17.9% | 82 | 0.85% | 94 | 0.97% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 6.1 | 13.3% | 61 | 0.73% | 70 | 0.83% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.7 | 12% | 55 | 0.77% | 63 | 0.89% |
| All ages | 39 | 43.0 | 100% | 459 | 0.71% | 555 | 0.86% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 195 | 214 |
| October 18 2020 | 781 | 11006 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 259 |
| October 19 2020 | 803 | 11335 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 281 |
| October 20 2020 | 827 | 11393 | 35 | 6 | 229 | 299 |
| October 21 2020 | 858 | 11450 | 37 | 6 | 240 | 323 |
| October 22 2020 | 895 | 11599 | 38 | 6 | 264 | 342 |
| October 23 2020 | 931 | 11712 | 39 | 6 | 286 | 356 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 319 | 434 |
| October 18 2020 | 3758 | 30277 | 75 | 15 | 317 | 459 |
| October 19 2020 | 3817 | 30695 | 77 | 15 | 331 | 481 |
| October 20 2020 | 3868 | 30854 | 78 | 15 | 352 | 495 |
| October 21 2020 | 3907 | 31009 | 79 | 15 | 372 | 508 |
| October 22 2020 | 3961 | 31309 | 79 | 17 | 395 | 520 |
| October 23 2020 | 3984 | 31496 | 80 | 17 | 397 | 498 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.8% | 11 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.6 | 9.6% | 38 | 0.23% | 55 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 10.4 | 26.7% | 106 | 0.5% | 136 | 0.64% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 5.7 | 13.1% | 52 | 0.38% | 70 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 4.9 | 13.4% | 53 | 0.39% | 63 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 6.3 | 14.6% | 58 | 0.41% | 65 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 3.4 | 11.8% | 47 | 0.33% | 59 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.1 | 8.1% | 32 | 0.25% | 39 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 23 | 38.0 | 100% | 397 | 0.34% | 498 | 0.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1562 | 1957 |
| October 18 2020 | 12509 | 223923 | 456 | 46 | 1668 | 2057 |
| October 19 2020 | 12516 | 228420 | 463 | 46 | 1481 | 2002 |
| October 20 2020 | 12821 | 229152 | 468 | 46 | 1581 | 2150 |
| October 21 2020 | 13121 | 229610 | 473 | 46 | 1700 | 2387 |
| October 22 2020 | 13315 | 230959 | 489 | 47 | 1730 | 2474 |
| October 23 2020 | 13555 | 232185 | 489 | 47 | 1862 | 2520 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 9.9 | 5.1% | 95 | 0.16% | 126 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 33 | 21.3 | 12.6% | 235 | 0.33% | 329 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 57 | 42.1 | 23% | 428 | 0.41% | 572 | 0.55% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 28.9 | 16.3% | 304 | 0.4% | 417 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 42 | 27.1 | 15.3% | 284 | 0.43% | 377 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 24.7 | 13.5% | 251 | 0.38% | 336 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 19 | 16.1 | 8.9% | 165 | 0.3% | 234 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 19 | 9.7 | 5.4% | 100 | 0.2% | 129 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 240 | 179.9 | 100% | 1862 | 0.34% | 2520 | 0.46% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 17 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 27488 | 35388 |
| October 18 2020 | 170114 | 1665459 | 9154 | 1588 | 28284 | 37451 |
| October 19 2020 | 173891 | 1703813 | 9319 | 1600 | 29073 | 39532 |
| October 20 2020 | 178482 | 1712883 | 9537 | 1633 | 30922 | 42103 |
| October 21 2020 | 182687 | 1718564 | 9704 | 1681 | 32451 | 43989 |
| October 22 2020 | 186100 | 1730646 | 9855 | 1703 | 33908 | 44270 |
| October 23 2020 | 190478 | 1744072 | 10038 | 1745 | 35007 | 45660 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 165 | 129.0 | 3.7% | 1279 | 0.2% | 1637 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 453 | 334.4 | 9.5% | 3342 | 0.44% | 4377 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 730 | 587.7 | 17% | 5952 | 0.79% | 7804 | 1.03% |
| 30-39 | 677 | 552.0 | 16% | 5601 | 0.74% | 7294 | 0.96% |
| 40-49 | 679 | 514.6 | 14.6% | 5124 | 0.73% | 6676 | 0.96% |
| 50-59 | 714 | 580.7 | 16.9% | 5907 | 0.72% | 7702 | 0.94% |
| 60-69 | 524 | 413.9 | 12% | 4195 | 0.55% | 5475 | 0.72% |
| 70+ | 436 | 358.0 | 10.3% | 3607 | 0.56% | 4695 | 0.73% |
| All ages | 4378 | 3470.3 | 100% | 35007 | 0.6% | 45660 | 0.78% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60.5 | 81.6 | 74.1 | 54.7 | 35.4 | 19.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85.8 | 43 | 26.3 | 20.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78.7 | 28.7 | 15.6 | 13% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.1 | 33.2 | 63.9 | 38 | 32.9 | 10% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.1 | 46.3 | 55.1 | 179.9 | 153 | 6.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.4 | 57.8 | 103.1 | 3470.3 | 2547.6 | 13.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 15.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.39 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1822"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges